Estimating the Population Growth Curve of Sea Turtle Eggs Production in Terengganu, Malaysia: Mathematical Modelling Approach

Abstract

A growth curve is a growth pattern that is unique to each organism, species, or population. In general, the growth pattern is regulated by genetic and environmental factors, resulting in unique growth curves for each subpopulation of the same species. This research was written to identify the growth curve of the Terengganu’s sea turtle eggs population. This work was aided by a mathematical modelling technique, specifically the exponential and logistic growth models. The aim of this research is to select the most realistic model to describe sea turtle eggs production in Terengganu. Furthermore, this work is also intended to forecast the future population growth of sea turtles in Terengganu. Error analysis is used to compare the error produced by both models in comparison with the real data of sea turtle eggs. As a result, the logistic model is better suited to describing the growth of sea turtle eggs production in Terengganu. The logistic model indicated that the sea turtle population would steadily increase until it reached it carrying capacity. Thus, this research is critical for ensuring the sustainability of sea turtles by understanding the mechanism of logistic growth.