Sensitivity Analysis-Based Validation of the Modified NERA Model for Improved Performance

Abstract

Marijuana is an illicit narcotic with multiple negative health effects as it continues to pose a severe danger to the health of people in emerging regions. Marijuana is spread through interactions between users and non-users. This study utilizes first-order non-linear ordinary differential equations to modify the Non-user, Experimental, Recreational, and Addicted (NERA) users’ model by adding a new class known as the hospitalized class of marijuana smokers. Moreover, this paper focuses on validating the NERA model using the sensitivity analysis concept. The NERA model presented in a previous study for marijuana usage among the target population consists of four distinct stages: the first stage is known as the non-user stage and is represented by the letter N; the second stage is known as the experimental stage of marijuana smoking and is represented by the letter E; the third stage is known as the recreational stage of marijuana smoking and is represented by the letter R; the fourth stage is represented by the letter A; and this last stage is known as the addicted stage of marijuana smoking. The suggested mathematical method achieved the reproduction number () for marijuana use. The results of the sensitivity tests indicate how crucial a variety of variables are to the spread of marijuana. The parameters that have a key impact on marijuana consumption were discovered based on sensitivity analysis. All these procedures, including the reproductive number and invariant region, using the sensitivity analysis concept were utilized to validate the updated model. In this study, the NERA model is modified by utilizing first-order non-linear ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, as demonstrated by the graphical and technique sections, the proposed modified models were successfully validated for improved performance.