Covid-19 Infection in a Boeing B737-800 Plane: Predicting the Secondary Infection using a Wells-Riley Approach

Abstract

In March 2020, the first covid-19 cases have been detected in Malaysia. Since then, number of Covid-19 infection in Malaysia has grown relatively until Malaysia become the highest number of positive cases in Southeast Asia. Previous studies have been done to analyse the airborne transmission of infection in different closed spaces. This information is important for many sectors to take any relevant action in order to minimize infection. This study is focusing on estimating the potential risk of Covid-19 infection among passengers on Boeing B737-800 aircraft. The aim of this study is to calculate secondary infection for Covid-19 virus in the Boeing B737-800 aircraft due to airborne transmission. Aircraft are preferred over other enclosed spaces like trains and buses because they require passengers to spend longer time in the enclosed spaces during flight without any interruption between the journeys. A major risk to passengers in a cabin could be posed by massive droplets and airborne transmissions given the high density and close proximity of passengers. The Wells-Riley model is used in this study because it has been frequently used for quantifying the infection risk assessment of infectious illnesses in indoor settings. In this study the secondary risk of infection is calculated for every susceptible passenger flying for one, two, three- and four-hour’s journey. The relationship between exposure time and number of infected people are positive linear relationships. This means that the longer time a passenger is exposed to the infected people in the cabin, the higher chance of the passenger getting infected by the virus. The reproduction number is estimated to be 2 passengers when the exposure duration is less than 2 hours for 80 passengers. This estimation indicates that the reproduction rate of secondary infection is high. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is a high chance passengers may get infected in the aircraft and the risk will increase when the exposure time is increasing. The best alternatives for protection are wearing mask and face shield, social distancing and sanitizing hands frequently. An improvement in ventilation also seems to be effective to prevent infection.