Uncertainty Estimate and Sensitivity Analysis of Lumped Thermal Model of Photovoltaic Modules

Abstract

The present work explores the assessment of lumped thermal modelling of solar PV modules and its convective heat transfer terms. The model of solar energy conversion in PV modules requires an accurate description of the electrical and thermal mechanisms involved in energy conversion. The variability of the heat flux over the surface is observed. It allows the uncertainty in the predicting of PV cell temperature and consequently to the conversion efficient is propagated to converted power, inducing an observed error in the efficiency of order of 0,1% for each °C (degree Celsius) and an error of 1W for each °C (degree Celsius). This error was estimated in the generation of a solar plant located in Pilar community in Rio de Janeiro and the possibility of a generation error of 0.6% was observed.